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Construction data and Productivity can relieve USD a bit

Today's data to the housing starts, new building permits, as well as the economic outlook of the University of Michigan couldn't reach the forecasts values. Only the unit labor costs and the non-farm productivity were more positive.

Construction improves, but below expectations.
Today published U.S. data on new building permits, as well as newly launched housing starts, although showed an improvement in the U.S. housing market, but could not fulfill the expectations of forecasts. The number of building permits rose, following a decline of 6.8% in the previous month to 2.7%, but remained 0.2% below the forecasts.
The housing starts increased by 5.9%. This is after a decline of 7.9% in the previous month although a significant recovery, but was 2.4% below the expected result.
Overall it can be said that the expectations of the real estate industry was a little on the high side, but ultimately a significant recovery in the industry is to recognize which of course allows conclusions on the further development of the U.S. economy.

Non-farm productivity and unit labor costs better than expected.
The data for non-farm productivity and unit labor costs have already shown a significant improvement in the forecasts, which was surpassed in the publication. Unit labor costs fell last quarter, by 4.2% and were up by 1.4% this quarter, with expectations stood at 1.2%.
The non-farm productivity fell in the previous quarter by 1.7% and could be increased in the quarter by 0.9%, with an expected increase of 0.6%.

Michigan index dropped significantly.
The economic outlook of the University of Michigan remains well below forecasts. This saw slight increase in consumer confidence by 0.4 points to 85.5 points. Today showed a decrease of about 5.1 to 80 points.
While the index shows a weaker consumer confidence, but only based on 500 respondents of consumers and should therefore not be too heavy weighted.

USD rose against the most counterparts
At least the market saw the todays data positiv and rose agaist his most traded counterparts. Against the EUR it gained currently 0,19% at a rate of 1,3319 an against the GBP it gained 0,13% with a currently rate of 1,5612. Against the JPY, the increase is currently 0.40% with a rate of 97.76.
The AUD against the dollar loses currently 0.44% bi a price of 0.9181.

Overall positive development of the U.S. economy.
Considered in the sum can be viewed positively, even if slight setbacks always had to cope with the development of the U.S. economy for the past few weeks. But it's these setbacks that make it seem too early for an assessment of whether the Fed in September is already less willing to support the markets. According to the testimony of Fed board members in recent weeks, it can be seen that the distribution of votes, is largely compensated for or against a throttling. This balance of the votes distribution is that it makes all necessary, the U.S. economy is concerned to observe data and statements by the Fed accurately to assess the upcoming decision on the purchases of bonds correctly.

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U.S.-Data today can turn the USD in positive trend

After the USD yesterday was like riding on a roller coaster, today a clear direction could be specified.

Building permits and housing starts indicate positive development
The forecasts for the upcoming today at 08:30 h (GMT -5) data on new building permits and housng starts indicate further signs of stabilization in the U.S. economy. Was the number of new building permits in the last month by -7.5%, an increase of 2.9% is expected for this month. It looks similar to the newly housing starts. Here, a decrease of 9.9% was recorded in the previous month and now expects growth of 8.3%.
More important factors, data on unit labor costs, the non-farm productivity and the consumer sentiment of the University of Michgan will be published today. For the non-farm productivity, a slight increase from 0.5% to 0.6% is expected, while the expected increase in unit labor costs, following a decline of 4.5%, with an increase of 1.2% quite clearly fails . The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected with a moderate increase from 85.1 to 85.5. If the published data as far as possible in the range of forecasts, or above, the USD should the trading week, even after yesterday's losses, may end up with a positive result.

Consumer prices for the euro zone
Today published consumer prices could mean a further dampening for the EUR. The forecasts foreshadow a decline of 0.1% (year), and 0.6% (month). Assuming that the forecasts have already been incorporated into the EUR, lower values should at least put further pressure on the EUR and the pair EUR / USD might aim for the mark of 1.32 xx again.

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Industrial Production tilt the USD Uptrend

While the U.S. dollar could today compensate losses from the early trading and turn into profit, for the Publication of jobless claims and inflation, the course has yielded massive after publication of the figures of industrial production and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. In the past month showed the Philly Fed index with 19.8 points still the highest level since 2011. Although the forecast of 15.0 points left a drop this month expect this fell at 9.3 points, well behind expectations.
Also, the industrial production figures are disappointing. After an increase of 0.2% last month, this month an increase of 0.3% was expected. The published value of 0.0% dimmed hopes for a rapid growth of industrial production again.

As a result of the publications the USD slipped back into the red zone. The pair EUR/USD is currently a gain of 0.77% at a price of 1.3357. The GBP/USD rising 0.95% at a current exchange rate of 1.5646. To the JPY the USD lost 0.82% and the current price is at 97.32.

Today's development is a further indication that a plausible assessment of whether the Fed at its meeting on 17 September actually decide on a reduction of bond purchases is similar to looking into a crystal sphere. I can only recommend to watch up the U.S. economic data to this date exactly, to analyze, and only enter with a clear picture, just before the meeting, accordingly short or long go in the market.

Jobless claims and consumer prices to support the U.S. dollar

Predictions come true or better
The today at 08:30 h (GMT -5) published data to the initial and continuing jobless claims, as well as the values on the rise in consumer prices have significantly supported the USD. For initial jobless claims forecasts saw a value of 335K. This was significantly lower than with 320K, and thus less about 15K applications. It looks better with the continuing requests. Here was a decline in applications around 23K to 3,000K expected. But the actual decline now shows a total value of 2,969K and thus 54,000 recipients of unemployment assistance who have found a new job.
For the consumption price inflation, the forecasts showed a precision landing. In the monthly value of these showed an increase of 0.2% and 2.0% in annual worth what the forecasts already pretended exactly. It also looks at the indices for the consumer prices, showing monthly 0.2% and 1.7% annually.

USD gains clearly
The USD rose significantly after the release of the figures. The pair EUR/USD, which had already reached a high of 1.3310 today after opening at 1.3256 stands currently at 1.3239, which represents a decrease of 0.12%. Even compared to its other counterparts, the USD could increase markedly. The pair USD/JPY currently recorded an increase of 0.29% at a price of 98.40.

Fed more difficult to assess
This development makes an assessment of the future course of the Fed, of course not simple. While the chairman of the St. Louis Fed yesterday warned not to get too to support the future course of Fed forecasts, as these have been refuted in the past too often, what put the USD under pressure, the forecasts today showed more as applicable. If you take the events of recent weeks and recent statements from the board of the Fed together, there is still no clear picture how high the probability is to be classified, which could begin tapering of the bond purchases by the Fed in September. While still signs of a recovery in the economy increases the value of the USD, it may look different again in the next week, when less messages brings the focus to official or unofficial statements from the Fed, which will be listened carefully. In trading forex, it is probably safest to USD near term to act under observation of the daily numbers and news.

FOMC - Member Bullard warns against too much optimism in the U.S. economy, USD declines

The chairman of the Federal Reserve of St. Louis, James Bullard, dampened yesterday with the statement that those responsible for the monetary policy of the United States should not put too much weight in the forecasts for the economy, and all measures to be taken with a healthy degree of caution have to be made. He justified his statement with the overly optimistic forecasts of the FOMC in recent years. Bullard caused quite a doubt on the speculation of a reduction of bond purchases by the Fed and the U.S. dollar fell in the wake of again. A PDF document of the St. Louis Fed's Bullard's opinion is available here (English). Bullard speaks again today at 14:30 clock.