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On Thursday the economic data could move the market.

On Thursday the economic data could move the market.

 

This Thursday, the market could come, because of the economic data distributed over the day, to larger movement. At 10:00 clock the data are published on the business climate in Germany. If this should exceed the forecasts, the EUR could its upward trend, which was already supported by different data on Wednesday for PMI, continue.

At 10:30 CEST comes the GDP figures for the United Kingdom and at 14:30 CEST the figures on Durable Goods are from the U.S., in addition to the figures on the first and continuing claims for unemployment benefits, published. If this continues the positive trend from the publications of Wednesday, this could give new impetus to the USD.

You see all the economic events in the economic calendar.

 

 

USD declines and China shows muscles

USD declines and China shows muscles

The US dollar continues to lose ground against most currencies. The DXY-index, a dollar weighed  towards basket of six major currencies, fell also on Tuesday from Monday’s low on 82,325. The Euro inched marginally above 1,32.  USD/JPY keeps steady at 99,721.  After new record highs in Asia spurred by a Chinese stock rally,  Wall Street continued to new record highs on on good quarterly earnings from Dupoint and United Technology.  Apple is going to present results after closing in New York.

In an upbeat statement on Tuesday the new Chinese Premier stressed that the aim of his authorities is to double the Chinese Gross Domestic Product, GDP, from 2010 to 2020,  To obtain this target an economic growth of minimum 7 % annually is needed.  The last forecasts for yearly growth in China in 2013 is 7,5 %.  The Chinese government has introduced measures which encourage bigger competition between banks and financial lenders  while simultaneously keeping inflation under control.

The Hang Seng index added 2,1 % on the announcement that China shall start huge infrastructure projects within the railway industry. These projects will consume big amounts of cement, steel and commodities and are seen by markets as a sure token that China will continue to be the same driving global force as it has been for the last years.  Chinese new leadership has no ambition to give up on ambitious targets set by its predecessors. It also determined to avoid any hard landing in its economy.

The Chinese statements were positively received as were quarterly earnings results from the US and the Federal Reserve’s (FED) statement last week that monetary easing is going to continue for an unforeseeable future. Oil prices are keeping steady at USD 108 a barrel level, and gold and silver started the week with higher prices than seen in weeks. Gold took a breathier on Tuesday and stayed at USD 1336 after adding 3 % on Monday.  Commodities don’t show any clear direction, but the Chinese statements should represent a clear boost for a sector being under strong pressure.

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Record high Inflows in Stocks

Record high Inflows in Stocks

 

Outstanding  quarterly results for the major American banks and Federal Reserve (FED) assurances to keep supporting the US economy  by continued printing of dollars, have spurred investors to pour more money into US equity funds last week than at any time since the financial crisis in 2009. Global markets seem to also have regained its appetite for stocks; equity  markets being for the moment by far the best sector to invest money into.

The three major US-indexes;  Dow Jones Industrial, the technology heavy NASDAQ and S&P financials have posted one record after the other in July after being rocked by volatility in May and June.

The big banks:  Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, J P Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo have all beaten analysts forecasts for their quarterly   earnings.  S&P hit a record USD 15 trillion after the three biggest banks posted USD 23,12 billion of net income for the three months to July, the highest being reported since second quarter of 2007.

It is, however, worth reminding that only one year later; in 2008  financial markets suffered its worth crisis in decades and brought the liberal market economy on the verge of collapse.  Some analysts foresee a similar development when FED finally decides to terminate its excessive bond buying program.  For now the market is run by optimism.  S&P financials index is up more than 6 % in July.  There has been a strong increased demands for trading and investments banking services.

The record inflows into the stock market contrast with money pulled from bond funds.  Last week saw outflows of  USD 1,7 Billion from investment-grade debt funds and another billion of outflows from US treasuries as investors turned away from assets regarded as “safe”.  The riskier high-yield bonds saw USD 4 billion in inflows: the highest level in two years. Exchange traded funds which track US stocks, have over the last month attracted USD 24,4B bn in inflows, four times higher than in the previous six months.

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Preview of important economic events from 22-07-2013 to 26-07-2013

Preview of important economic events from 22-07-2013 to 26-07-2013

 

Here we show you a preview of the most important economic events in the next week, which can have a major influence at the Forex-Market.

 

Aditional to the data, which are mentioned below in the table, coming into this week a variety of data, which are usually individually don't have a large influence on the movement of the market, but when they are published in a timely manner to each other, in the sum could have greater impact. You'll find all this events in the economic calendar.

 

Date/Time (GMT -5) Event Currency Previous Forecast
22. July 2013 10:00h US - Existing Home Sales USD 5.18M 5.25M
23. July 2013 08:30h Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) CAD -0.3% 0.1%
23. July 2013 21:30h Australien Consumer Price Index (CPI) AUD 2.5% 2.5%
23. July 2013 21:30h Australien CPI Index Number AUD 102.4 ---
23. July 2013 21:45 Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI CNY 48.2 48.6
24. July 2013 10:00h US - New Home Sales USD 476K 484K
24. July 2013 17:00h Reserve Bank of New Zealand - Interest Rate Decision NZD 2.50% 2.50%
24. July 2013 17:00h RBNZ Rate Statement NZD --- ---
25. July 2013 04:00h German Ifo Business Climate Index EUR 105.9 106.1
25. July 2013 04:30h Great Britain GDP (QoQ) GBP 0.3% 0.6%
25. July 2013 04:30h Great Britain GDP (YoY) GBP 0.3% 1.4%
25. July 2013 08:30h US - Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) USD 0.5% 0.5%
25. July 2013 08:30h US - Initial Jobless Claims USD 334K 340K

 

 

 

Sharp fell in jobless claims

Sharp fell in jobless claims

New claims for jobless benefits dropped last week to their lowest level in four months. This might probably bolster expectations that the US Federal Reserve (FED) will start tapering its monetary stimulus this year. The better jobless data come just one day after FED Chairman Ben Bernanke made his presentation to Congress where he made the continuation of the bond buying program dependent on the “health” of the US economy. The initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 24 000 to seasonally adjusted 334 000. The fall was much deeper than analysts had predicted and appeared to back the case for FED winding down the bond buying during 2013. The dollar extended gains against the yen, a sign that investors are betting on tighter monetary policy in the future. Overnight the Euro has gained ground against USD trading at 1.3137. USD/JPY trades at 100,10. In another development the international rating agency Moody’s has raised the outlook on US economy from negative to stable and affirmed the country’s triple-A- rating. Moody’s is citing steady growth despite the reduced government spending. The US budget outlook has improved in recent months, alleviating some of the pressure on policymakers for further budget cuts and more fiscal compromises. In May the Congressional Budget office stated that the deficit is shrinking faster than since 2008. Better than expected earnings took Dow Jones and S&P 500 to new record highs yesterday. Morgan Stanley jumped 4,4 % and posted a 42 % increase in quarterly profit. 76 % of the financials reporting earnings have surpassed estimates. Health and health insurance stocks beat expectations while Microsoft failed to deliver. Dow Jones climbed to 15 589. S&P’s new record is 1693. The Japanese Nikkei which reached a two-month high earlier in the week, slid 1.1 % on profit taking and fear that nationalistic policies will be given priority at the expense of structural reform.

This news are provided by Mayzus Investment Company. Click here and get more informations!

 

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